Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7E. Hernández scored on error, Taylor safe at first on throwing error by shortstop DeJong, Taylor safe at second on error.2–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 7E. Hernández doubled to left, Rojas scored.1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +23 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +99 Elo | LAD 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 13–2529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–40 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–36 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 33–42 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39–1 | 36–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.