Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hoppe homered to right center (406 feet).2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Lux singled to left, Rojas scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Biggio scored, Ohtani to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Smith walked, Rojas scored, Ohtani to second, Biggio to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 41–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Calhoun grounded out to first, Schanuel scored, Ward to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pages hit a ground rule double, Freeman scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (459 feet), Biggio scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Lux homered to right center (388 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 77%
- ML LAA +310 / LAD -410
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.0%, market 76.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -330
- LAA +330 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | LAA: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +123 Elo | LAD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 76.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–34 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 36–36 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 38–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 1–4 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.