Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez doubled to center, Keith scored, Greene to third.2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 7McKinstry homered to right center (365 feet).2–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Lopez singled to center, Jiménez scored and Sheets scored, Lopez to second.2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 2Greene homered to left center (367 feet), Vierling scored and Keith scored.0–9
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Keith singled to left, Rogers scored, Vierling to second.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 1Baddoo homered to right center (386 feet), Pérez scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Urshela grounded out to shortstop, Canha scored, Pérez to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Keith homered to left center (379 feet), Vierling scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML CHW +165 / DET -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 60.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +72 Elo | DET 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 308–32 | Road vs home | 17–2023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 34–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 9–26 |
| Underdog | 33–41 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42–1 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–12 DET in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.