Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting1-4
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Freeman doubled to right, Barnes scored and Ohtani scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, E. Hernández scored, Barnes to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (437 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / CHW +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- CHW +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +140 Elo | LAD 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 13–2730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–41 | 38–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–37 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41–1 | 36–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–1 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.