Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Duvall scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Tellez homered to right (421 feet), Olivares scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Cruz homered to right center (452 feet), Suwinski scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Riley grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ozuna scored, Olson out at second.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 65%
- ML PIT +170 / ATL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.1%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -183
- PIT +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −10 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +93 Elo | ATL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 26–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–40 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 29–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–7 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.