Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to center, Isbel scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Massey scored on error, Fermin safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Triolo.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Cruz singled to center, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored, Isbel to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Garcia doubled to center, Frazier scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left center (420 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +34 Elo | KC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 37–3922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–63 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 47–28 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79–1 | 74–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–3 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.