Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Chisholm Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Berti scored, Judge to third.3–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 10Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Blanco scored on Cousins wild pitch.3–2
- 10Blanco scored on Cousins wild pitch.3–2
- 7Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Isbel scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Soto homered to right (402 feet), Torres scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Massey homered to right (375 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML KC +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +23 Elo | NYY 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 38–3215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–63 | 75–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 49–63 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 65–78–1 | 81–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–8 NYY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.