Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-3
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Melendez singled to center, Pham scored, Witt Jr. thrown out at home.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored, Pham to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pham reached on infield single to shortstop, Blanco scored on throwing error by shortstop Lee, Isbel safe at third on error.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Isbel singled to left, Fermin scored, Blanco to second.2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Wallner doubled to right, Miranda scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Miranda tripled to right, Julien scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 43–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–74 | 78–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 39–55 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 43–27 |
| Overs–unders | 72–68 | 64–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–8 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.