Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Pham homered to left center (423 feet), Grossman scored and Massey scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Massey singled to center, DeJong scored, Grossman to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Ramírez singled to left, Giménez scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML CLE +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- KC: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +5 Elo | KC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 41–306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–64 | 76–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–42 | 33–35 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 43–27 |
| Overs–unders | 70–66–2 | 64–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–13 KC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.