Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCutchen homered to right (369 feet).8–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–10
- 8J. Naylor singled to right, Ramírez scored, Fry to third.7–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 8Fry singled to right, Thomas scored, Ramírez to third.7–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 6Cruz singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.7–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 27–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 17–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 5Giménez homered to right (375 feet).6–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Noel homered to left center (450 feet), J. Naylor scored.6–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 5J. Naylor singled to center, Ramírez scored.6–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 5Tellez homered to right center (406 feet), McCutchen scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5McCutchen doubled to center, Cruz scored and Reynolds scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Cruz singled to right, Grandal scored and Kiner-Falefa scored, Reynolds to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML PIT +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +52 Elo | CLE 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–35 | Road vs home | 41–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–64 | 70–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 34–41 |
| Underdog | 49–28 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 66–65 | 68–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.