Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Paul DeJongBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos HernandezPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to right, Isbel scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Massey singled to right, Garcia scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Frazier scored on Barlow wild pitch, Garcia to second on wild pitch by Barlow.4–1
- 7Frazier scored on Barlow wild pitch, Garcia to second on wild pitch by Barlow.4–1
- 7Garcia singled to right, Hampson scored, Frazier to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–1
- 4Thomas singled to center, Fry scored, Schneemann to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2DeJong homered to right center (395 feet), Perez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML KC +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 5.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 40–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–56 | 69–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–69–1 | 67–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 12–9 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.