Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Garcia tripled to right, Isbel scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Schneemann hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +44 Elo | CLE 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–18 | Road vs home | 27–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–29 | 46–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 26–8 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37–2 | 34–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–7 KC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.