Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting1-3
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langford homered to left (415 feet), Seager scored, García scored and Lowe scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 8García grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Semien scored, Seager third.0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Smith homered to right (352 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML KC +125 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -133
- KC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 18–1918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–32 | 33–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41–1 | 29–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–8 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.