New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso doubled to left, Nimmo scored, Martinez to third.7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Alvarez doubled to center, Marte scored and Alonso scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 7Lindor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vientos scored, Stewart out at second, Alvarez to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Nimmo homered to right center (364 feet).3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Langford homered to left center (414 feet).2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Smith homered to right center (370 feet), Taveras scored and Seager scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Seager singled to left, Duran scored, Taveras to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Bader grounded out to second, Vientos scored, McNeil to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Seager grounded out to first, Duran scored, Semien to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Vientos homered to left (409 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +35 Elo | TEX 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 16–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 30–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34 | 27–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.