San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo singled to left, McNeil scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 7Martinez homered to right center (382 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Merrill homered to center (411 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Martinez homered to right center (391 feet), Nimmo scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Nimmo doubled to right, Lindor scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML SD +110 / NYM -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +3 | SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 16–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–35 | 27–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35–1 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–4 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.