Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien singled to right, Grossman scored and Jankowski scored, Huff to third.5–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 9Smith walked, Langford scored, Grossman to second, Jankowski to third.3–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 43–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 9Langford grounded into fielder's choice to third, García scored, Lowe out at second.2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Rojas singled to center, Canzone scored and Moore scored, Crawford to third.1–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Rojas homered to right center (395 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Semien doubled to left, Duran scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Canzone singled to left, Raleigh scored, Garver to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Rodríguez homered to left center (412 feet), Rojas scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML TEX +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 25–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–39 | 31–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–43–1 | 26–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–7 SEA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 17.