Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Haniger out at second.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Garver homered to center (397 feet), Rodríguez scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Langford singled to center, Lowe scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Lowe doubled to center, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML TEX +120 / SEA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 24–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–39 | 31–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–42–1 | 26–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–6 SEA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 16.