New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vientos scored, Alvarez out at second.14–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 113–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–2
- 8Alvarez singled to center, Taylor scored, Vientos to third.13–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 6Alvarez singled to left, Stewart scored, Vientos to second.12–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play12–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking11–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 311–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 211–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 5Nimmo singled to right, McNeil scored, Lindor to third.11–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 5Lindor doubled to right, Alvarez scored, McNeil to third.10–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (383 feet), Lindor scored.9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 3Grossman homered to left (383 feet), Semien scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 2Stewart homered to right (398 feet), Nimmo scored and Alonso scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored, Nimmo to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML NYM +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +17 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 16–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–40 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 26–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.