Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-3
- Dane DunningPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Tyler LocklearBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raley scored on Winn wild pitch, Canzone to second on wild pitch by Winn.0–5
- 8Raley scored on Winn wild pitch, Canzone to second on wild pitch by Winn.0–5
- 8Canzone singled to left, Bliss scored, Raley to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Locklear homered to left (390 feet).0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Rojas scored on Dunning wild pitch.0–2
- 5Rojas scored on Dunning wild pitch.0–2
- 4Raley doubled to right, Haniger scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML TEX +120 / SEA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +5 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 26–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–43–1 | 27–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–8 SEA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 18.