San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso singled to left, Bader scored and Lindor scored, Nimmo to second.6–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 8Nimmo singled to center, McNeil scored, Lindor to second, Bader to third.6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 8Torrens homered to center (403 feet).6–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8Campusano hit sacrifice fly to center, D. Peralta scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8Kim doubled to center, Solano scored, D. Peralta to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8D. Peralta grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Cronenworth scored, Merrill out at second, Solano to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Merrill walked, Profar scored, Solano to second, Cronenworth to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 43–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Profar grounded out to first, Campusano scored, Arraez to third.2–7
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -145 / NYM +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SD: Elo 51.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -133
- NYM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 3.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 17–2226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36–1 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–5 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.