New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taveras homered to right center (405 feet), Seager scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Langford singled to left, Smith scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Smith doubled to right, Grossman scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Alonso homered to center (427 feet), Martinez scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Marte doubled to left, Nimmo scored, Martinez to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Langford hit by pitch, Grossman scored, Smith to second, García to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYM -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +26 Elo | TEX 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 16–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–41 | 31–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 37–34 | 28–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–2 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.