Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left (422 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Gelof homered to center (422 feet), Butler scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Fermin homered to left (391 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Fermin homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML KC -145 / OAK +125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- KC: Elo 57.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -133
- OAK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 3.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +55 Elo | KC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 17–2023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–30 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40–1 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–6 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.