Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Loftin grounded out to shortstop, Perez scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Fermin grounded out to first, Pasquantino scored, Melendez to second, Perez to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Garcia grounded out to second, Isbel scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Gelof homered to left (393 feet), Nevin scored and Butler scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Andujar reached on infield single to shortstop, Schuemann scored, Bleday to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Bleday doubled to right, Gelof scored, Schuemann to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Loftin homered to center (394 feet), Fermin scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Rooker hit sacrifice fly to left, Bleday scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Bleday doubled to center, Schuemann scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML KC -130 / OAK +110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- KC: Elo 59.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +64 Elo | KC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 15–2026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–28 | 35–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39–1 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–4 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.