Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Semien doubled to left, Heim scored, Taveras scored and Grossman scored, Semien thrown out at third.2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Heim grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lowe scored, Langford out at second.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Langford singled to left, García scored, Lowe to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Hampson singled to left, Melendez scored, Renfroe to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Langford doubled to center, García scored, Lowe to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Isbel homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML KC +125 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -133
- KC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +13 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +56 Elo | TEX 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 17–1921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–31 | 32–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41–1 | 28–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–7 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.