Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander homered to right (358 feet).10–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 8Arias singled to right, Bo Naylor scored.10–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–7
- 8Bo Naylor tripled to center, Freeman scored.9–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–7
- 7McCann grounded out to third, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to second, Westburg to third.8–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 4Cowser homered to center (439 feet).8–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 4McCann homered to left center (419 feet).8–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 4Ramírez homered to center (410 feet), Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.8–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Kwan singled to right, Arias scored, Kwan to second, Rocchio to third.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Rocchio singled to left, Bo Naylor scored, Arias to third.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Westburg doubled to left, Henderson scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2McCann singled to left, Mateo scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Arias doubled to left, Bo Naylor scored and Rodríguez scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Henderson homered to center (399 feet), Mountcastle scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML CLE +135 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -146
- CLE +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–28 | 45–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 25–7 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36–2 | 42–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.