Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez homered to center (431 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Santander hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Bo Naylor doubled to right, Arias scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Henderson scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored, Giménez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML CLE +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −15 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 25–146th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–28 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 24–7 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35–2 | 42–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–3 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.