Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake BlossPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander homered to right (378 feet), Mountcastle scored.11–14
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play11–14
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–14
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 39–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–14
- 8Mountcastle doubled to center, Rutschman scored.9–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–14
- 8Henderson homered to left (350 feet), McCann scored.8–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 36–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–14
- 8Mateo homered to left (365 feet), Mullins scored.6–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–14
- 7Henderson homered to right (414 feet).4–14
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–14
- 6Loperfido doubled to center, Dubón scored and Singleton scored.3–14
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–12
- 6Dubón doubled to left, Diaz scored, Singleton to third.3–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–11
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BAL -160 / HOU +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- HOU +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jake Bloss (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–11 | Road vs home | 19–1915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–29 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–26 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–32–2 | 27–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.