Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Peña doubled to center, Diaz scored and Bregman scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Westburg homered to left center (366 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Salazar scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Dubón singled to center, Peña scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Peña doubled to left, Diaz scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Diaz singled to left, Bregman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Altuve homered to center (427 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 50%
- ML BAL -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +23 Elo | BAL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–13 | Road vs home | 21–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–31 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–28 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–33–2 | 28–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–5 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.