Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting3-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCormick homered to right (354 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5McCormick homered to left (414 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Alvarez homered to center (420 feet), McCormick scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Dubón hit sacrifice fly to left, Diaz scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Westburg homered to left center (380 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML BAL -155 / HOU +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +16 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +23 Elo | BAL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–12 | Road vs home | 20–1915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–30 | 33–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–27 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–32–2 | 28–42–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.