Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to left (407 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2J. Naylor reached on infield single to first, Giménez scored and Ramírez scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Giménez to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rodríguez scored, Hedges out at second.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Hedges singled to left, Brennan scored and Freeman scored, Rodríguez to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Rodríguez walked, J. Naylor scored, Brennan to second, Freeman to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML TOR +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 23–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 45–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 21–20 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39–1 | 36–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–5 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.