Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Brennan scored, Freeman out at second, Rocchio to third.8–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 38–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 28–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Ramírez reached on infield single to first, Rodríguez scored, Giménez to second.8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 7Garver grounded into fielder's choice to second, France scored, Raley out at second.8–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6J. Naylor scored on pickoff error by pitcher Miller, Brennan picked off second.7–3
- 6J. Naylor scored on pickoff error by pitcher Miller, Brennan picked off second.7–3
- 6Brennan singled to right, Ramírez scored, J. Naylor to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Moore homered to left (402 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Raley homered to left (371 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Crawford doubled to center, Moore scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Garver doubled to center, Raleigh scored, France to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Raleigh doubled to center, Rojas scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML SEA +120 / CLE -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +25 Elo | CLE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–40 | 43–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–44–2 | 33–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.