Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brennan homered to right center (380 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5J. Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Giménez homered to center (413 feet), Kwan scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Bliss doubled to left, France scored, Robles to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Brennan homered to right center (401 feet).2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1J. Naylor grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Kwan scored, Giménez out at second.2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Moore homered to left (429 feet), Crawford scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML SEA +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +5 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 22–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–41 | 44–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–44–2 | 35–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–7 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.