Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting1-4
- Bryan WooPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Naylor homered to center (404 feet).0–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Bo Naylor singled to right, Schneemann scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5J. Naylor homered to right (397 feet), Ramírez scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Ramírez reached on infield single to second, Giménez scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Kwan homered to right (358 feet), Bo Naylor scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML SEA +130 / CLE -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -138
- SEA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 21–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 43–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 19–20 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–44–2 | 34–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.