Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Barger singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Turner to second.5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Horwitz homered to center (413 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4J. Naylor homered to right center (409 feet).3–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 4Kwan homered to right center (376 feet).3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Rocchio grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Bo Naylor scored, Rodríguez out at second, Schneemann to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Rodríguez walked, J. Naylor scored, Schneemann to second, Bo Naylor to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball 43–3
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Schneemann singled to center, Ramírez scored, Bo Naylor to second, J. Naylor to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML TOR +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +63 Elo | CLE 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 25–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–41 | 47–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40–1 | 37–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–7 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.