Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kiner-Falefa homered to left (357 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Schneemann homered to right center (389 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Kwan homered to right (362 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Ramírez homered to right (377 feet), Giménez scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (391 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Bo Naylor homered to center (435 feet), Brennan scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Schneider homered to right center (378 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML TOR +120 / CLE -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- TOR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +41 Elo | CLE 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 24–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 46–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–25 | 22–20 |
| Underdog | 13–15 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40–1 | 36–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.