Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 6Renfroe homered to left (434 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Isbel singled to center, Massey scored, Melendez to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Perez homered to left center (406 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (385 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3De La Cruz doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 69%
- ML MIA +205 / KC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- KC: Elo 57.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -218
- MIA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 5.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +54 Elo | KC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 25–146th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–46 | 44–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 30–28 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35–1 | 34–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.