Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-2
- Shaun AndersonPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bliss doubled to center, Moore scored.9–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Moore doubled to left, Canzone scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 5Canzone homered to right (415 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4Crawford grounded into fielder's choice to first, Moore scored on error and Bliss scored on fielding error by first baseman Bell, Crawford second.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Bliss singled to center, Canzone scored, Moore to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Canzone singled to center, Raley scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, France to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Crawford scored on S. Anderson wild pitch, France to second on wild pitch by S. Anderson, Rojas to third on wild pitch by S. Anderson.1–0
- 1Crawford scored on S. Anderson wild pitch, France to second on wild pitch by S. Anderson, Rojas to third on wild pitch by S. Anderson.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -170 / MIA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -154
- MIA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Shaun Anderson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 15–2628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–43 | 30–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–29 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders | 30–45–2 | 39–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.