Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ryan BlissBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Anderson singled to left, Burger scored, Anderson to second.2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Bell homered to center (413 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6De La Cruz homered to center (403 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Bliss tripled to center, France scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Garver hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 3.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +64 Elo | SEA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 14–2628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–42 | 29–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders | 30–44–2 | 39–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.