Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Nick GordonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford singled to center, Garver scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Bliss grounded out to shortstop, Raley scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4Raley homered to left (381 feet), Canzone scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3J. Sánchez homered to right center (429 feet).0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bruján scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Gordon homered to right (366 feet), J. Sánchez scored and Burger scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Burger singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, J. Sánchez to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / MIA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Kyle Tyler (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +41 Elo | SEA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 15–2728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–43 | 30–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 31–45–2 | 40–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–2 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.