Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fermin singled to left, Loftin scored and Melendez scored, Renfroe to third.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Loftin singled to left, Perez scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8Perez doubled to left, Blanco scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Fortes singled to right, Bruján scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 64%
- ML MIA +170 / KC -205
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- KC: Elo 55.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | MIA: Valente Bellozo (no track record yet) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +38 Elo | KC 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 26–156th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–47 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 31–29 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37–1 | 34–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.