Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn homered to right center (388 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Mullins homered to right (381 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Henderson homered to center (424 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Arias homered to left (392 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Henderson singled to center, Mateo scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Noel homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 68%
- ML CLE +195 / BAL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -208
- CLE +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–17 | Road vs home | 25–169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–28 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 32–30 |
| Underdog | 26–7 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36–2 | 43–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–3 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.