Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos homered to left (385 feet), Bohm scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored and Harper scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 8Harper doubled to right, Stubbs scored, Schwarber to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Melendez homered to right (418 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Schwarber singled to right, Rojas scored on error and Stubbs scored on fielding error by right fielder Blanco.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Stubbs doubled to left, Marsh scored, Rojas to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Garcia homered to left center (423 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Schwarber grounded out to first, Marsh scored, Stubbs to second, Rojas to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to center (441 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML PHI +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- KC: Elo 47.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 5.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | PHI: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 41–275th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 73–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–68–1 | 58–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.