Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Adam DuvallBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Realmuto doubled to right, Stott scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Duvall homered to center (421 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Olson doubled to right, Merrifield scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Urshela hit a ground rule double, Laureano scored, Duvall to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to third, Turner scored, Harper out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML PHI +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +9 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 33–2712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–64 | 58–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 42–57 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 58–67–1 | 46–76–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 11–14 ATL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.