Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moniak doubled to right, Schanuel scored, Drury to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4O'Hoppe homered to center (407 feet), Schanuel scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Kelenic reached on infield single to third, Olson scored, Murphy to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Murphy singled to left, Ozuna scored, Olson to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +53 Elo | ATL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 26–3828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–65 | 65–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–55 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 59–32 |
| Overs–unders | 45–72–3 | 59–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.