Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-4
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chapman doubled to right, Ramos scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6McCray homered to center (404 feet).0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Schmitt homered to left (372 feet), Yastrzemski scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Fitzgerald hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2McCray reached on bunt single to pitcher, Encarnación scored, Schmitt to second, Yastrzemski to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML ATL -105 / SF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SF: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +19 Elo | ATL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 35–2710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–64 | 58–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 40–55 | 24–40 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–71–3 | 64–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–4 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.