Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soler homered to right center (380 feet).11–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 7Olson homered to right (395 feet), Ozuna scored.10–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–8
- 6Doyle singled to right, Tovar scored.8–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 6Tovar doubled to left, Goodman scored and Hilliard scored.8–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 6Soler singled to right, Murphy scored and Merrifield scored.8–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 28–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 5Ozuna homered to left (401 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 3Hilliard doubled to center, Díaz scored and Toglia scored.5–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 3Olson homered to right (416 feet), Merrifield scored, Soler scored and Riley scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Riley walked, Laureano scored, Soler to second, Merrifield to third.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML ATL -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −3 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +105 Elo | ATL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 26–2924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–63 | 57–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–54 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 56–50 |
| Overs–unders | 42–69–3 | 61–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–1 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.