New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah DavisPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cave grounded out to second, Toglia scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 9Winker singled to left, Taylor scored, Lindor to second.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Lindor singled to left, Bader scored and Gamel scored, Taylor to second.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Bryant reached on infield single to third, Rodgers scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Taylor singled to center, Iglesias scored on fielding error by center fielder Doyle, Gamel to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Tovar homered to center (434 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML NYM -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +82 Elo | NYM 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 25–2723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–59 | 56–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 55–48 |
| Overs–unders | 57–54 | 60–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–6 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.