Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7McMahon hit sacrifice fly to center, Tovar scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Cave singled to center, Rodgers scored, Bryant to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Bryant singled to center, Doyle scored and McMahon scored, Rodgers to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Solano homered to left center (393 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Machado homered to left center (385 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Rodgers homered to left center (391 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML COL +155 / SD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- SD: Elo 67.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +129 Elo | SD 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–41 | Road vs home | 28–2718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–53 | 59–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 52–47 | 33–15 |
| Overs–unders | 59–47 | 60–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–11 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.