Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hilliard sacrificed, Schunk scored, Hilliard to first on throwing error by pitcher Crouse.5–4
- 9Cave homered to center (412 feet), McMahon scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Ward doubled to left, Schanuel scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Moniak homered to center (412 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4O'Hoppe homered to center (454 feet), Calhoun scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Toglia homered to center (388 feet), Rodgers scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML COL +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 60.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +5 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +73 Elo | LAA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–41 | Road vs home | 24–3328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–53 | 59–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 51–47 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–47 | 54–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.