Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 15 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman scored on Lambert wild pitch.1–4
- 8Chapman scored on Lambert wild pitch.1–4
- 7Bailey doubled to left, Hill scored and Wade Jr. scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Toglia homered to right (367 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Chapman homered to left (390 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 64%
- Fair odds
- SF -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +2 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +101 Elo | SF 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–37 | Road vs home | 29–2210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–51 | 51–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 49–45 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45 | 56–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–16 SF in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.